The Friday Illusion Again?
Nov 21, 2014 Freaky Friday 6:00A.M.
Will they sell Metals off? Will they buy it back? Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets, so I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return. So far, it seems likely. Well, if you’ve read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere.
First- this is the “SNAPSHOT” I woke up to… whats your first thought?
It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ….
I want to look more closely at the Dollar. Notice the last two peaks were on “Spike” Fridays , hmmm. And it looks to be slightly weakening
Back to how $GOLD has been acting on a little bigger time frame… I pointed out the FED slam, and then recovery , so Gold keeps selling off and recovering (Click any chart to enlarge)
Last night I looked at GOLD and saw that an Inverse H&S was now actually forming. I captured this Pic Thursday night . How would FRIDAY treat it?
Notice the bottom of that shoulder is $1186. We didn’t break that yet , as of now 6:20 a.m. (in fact now GOLD has shot back up )
GOLD appears to me to be building some steam to try to break above the 50sma. It failed there last time. Sideways movement can build the steam necessary, and so far the 10sma has acted as support.
If Miners sell down, this is what I am thinking…. Even if GDX began to dip down, it would look like a 1/2 cycle low and may find trendline support. Doesnt this still look like a normal chart starting a bullish trend higher? (Sorry I labeled the chart wrong, just noticed- this is obviously GDX)
The above scenario also tags that high vol candle, and that is not uncommon. It would look something like this – I drew in the last red candle
At this point in an ICL, my opinion is that it may Not be worth trading around, because we MAY just blast higher. Remember….not all bottoms look the same I can show you bottoms where the above dip occurred, or you can look at the MAY 2014 lows and see how anyone trading around or shorting got run over.
So thats what I am thinking in the Metals area. I like what I see, I am bullish for now.
SOME HERE ARE METALS BUGS AND JUST WANT TO SEE THIS PLAY OUT, THAT IS FINE. Your report is done here.
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FOR OTHERS: I have also been discussing ENERGY and I said 2 weeks ago that I had a downside target of $75 on $WTIC / OIL. I also pointed out the bottom on XLE and now we see some “Double Bottom” action in many of the Energy stocks, so I have decided that for some “Traders” or even medium term investors , you may want to see some pretty nice set ups.
NOTE: I will just post a few charts here, but let me say that when a sector starts to look favorable across the board…there are many other “set ups” to choose from. SOME want me to post 1 or 2 charts only…show you what to buy, but when I said that in an audio recording I got MANY more replies saying that you’d like to see multiple charts set ups to confirm that the sector is setting up . Some experienced traders also want to choose their own Trades from a line up. IN THE FUTURE….I am thinking of maybe an audio lesson here and there to discuss “Where I might BUY” “Where I might consider selling” “Finding Price Targets” “Stops” etc
For now…these are several charts of energy set ups for those who like to have such choices (Coal & Uraniums are also still acting correctly)
FST – looks ready right now I.M.O.
CPE
MRO – Breaking above the 20 sma
GDP – Mentioned in a prior report with EXXI –
GDP has moved off of its bottom in stealth mode / EXXI looks ready
WLT could go at any time
ANR
URRE
SO you can see that the energy sector looks like it has continued in its bottoming process. Many set ups are breing upward and others look ready to follow.
Why not look at a few more like MRO, VLO, XOM, SD, PQ, HERO.… Various stages of the same.
So while GOLD decides what it wants to do, and maybe you are waiting for MINERS to break above the 50sma, there are other areas that look very attractive too. I AM NOT TRYING TO CONFUSE ANYONE. Some people enjoy many views of various set ups and it gives them choices that they can act on.
If you only like to see 1 or 2 charts, pick one of two based on the comments I made and follow them. for example : EXXI / FST / CPE look great here and now, with a stop below recent lows. Low risk I.M.O. I just want to serve all of the variety of readers that I am finding stop here, so I show many set ups.
Thanks for visiting, and best wishes on successful trades, and have a great weekend!
~ALEX
P.S. As I close this report at 7:20. -its as though nothing happened in GOLD overnight. An Inverse H&S is hanging there, but is it just an illusion? Will it get shaken down? Will it break out upwards? It is FRIDAY, it will be interesting to see how the weekly chars end, I will have a report by Monday morning.
Gold and $ do not always inverse
As my gold and $ charts have not backtracked that far, here are two I dug out that said better.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-…w+Radomski+CFA
Are you posting this because I included the $USD in my report? SOmeone requested that I do the $USD. I know they dont ALWAYS have an inverse relationship – I’ve traded Gold/Miners for 14 years. MOST of the time, the correlation is there, and lately ..it has been inverse. thx
Yes as I am trying to understand if this might be an illusion that $ up Gold down. The variables kept shifting. Gold correlates with Euro, correlates with Yen etc…… so am trying to understand more when these variables might shift and what cause the shift. Would appreciate some enlightenment from ya.
Things can change , and I have seen GOLD & USD run up together, but usually one changes direction.
$XJY & $USD have been opposite and the $XJY sell off really looks overdone.
What might cause a shift? I cant say…..I read charts, not always the news. Its funny, but the charts show me that “Someone” always knows something before it happens. Often- The charts change first, then the news comes out . As things change the catalyst is often a surprise.
Thanks.
If CNY/$ fx is Indexed to CNY of 2008 high, then 1895 on 5 Sept 2011 should be 2100$ ??
Good analysis again Alex. Thanks you. Whats your opinion in general on buying stocks like NUGT premarket? Too much risk? Right now gold is at 1202 looks like it wants to go higher………..
Thats a tough one, because yes, there is added risk buying a GAP UP pre-mkt. . Gold has resistance at the 50sma, so it may run up, bounce off the $1208 area , and then sell down to 1179 again and still be fine, but NUGT would take a big hit. SO to tell you to enter pre-mkt would be a ‘guess’. Your guess is as good as mine. IF Gold breaks above the 50sma, then things may run up nicely tho.
Good analysis again Alex. Thanks you. Whats your opinion in general on buying stocks like NUGT premarket? Too much risk? Right now gold is at 1202 looks like it wants to go higher………..
Thats a tough one, because yes, there is added risk buying a GAP UP pre-mkt. . Gold has resistance at the 50sma, so it may run up, bounce off the $1208 area , and then sell down to 1179 again and still be fine, but NUGT would take a big hit. SO to tell you to enter pre-mkt would be a ‘guess’. Your guess is as good as mine. IF Gold breaks above the 50sma, then things may run up nicely tho.
Oil had led com mods recover most times but situations are not always the same as now the OPEC members don’t know how to pitch against a new comer: shale oil. So unless price comes down so hard to cause shale redundant otherwise oil price will trade tight. So who will lead commods recovery? PM or Energy or????
Oil had led com mods recover most times but situations are not always the same as now the OPEC members don’t know how to pitch against a new comer: shale oil. So unless price comes down so hard to cause shale redundant otherwise oil price will trade tight. So who will lead commods recovery? PM or Energy or????
Thanks for the super work! Has been moving up slowly but I like the stealth GDP ride so far. Kiddie car pace (as opposed to rockets) more my style anyway. 🙂
Thank You & glad you caught some of that GDP ride up (I think it has more upside too) , and these energy picks today look really good. I loved that EXXI and WLT set up. Best Wishes Deshy!
Thanks for the super work! Has been moving up slowly but I like the stealth GDP ride so far. Kiddie car pace (as opposed to rockets) more my style anyway. 🙂
Thank You & glad you caught some of that GDP ride up (I think it has more upside too) , and these energy picks today look really good. I loved that EXXI and WLT set up. Best Wishes Deshy!
smells like friday ‘lockout’ in Miners. plenty of opportunity in Oil and GM’s
Yeah, I expect that common Noon time dip…then see if things close at highs. THAT would look good on a weekly chart, and then MONDAY could be really interesting (Gap over 50sma across miners and Gold?) We’ll see.
Good call on the Noon time dip.
Thanks., and rejected at the 50sma so far (Gold , GLD & GDX)… It doesnt mean a failure, I just expected the tag of the 50sma to cause a pushback
smells like friday ‘lockout’ in Miners. plenty of opportunity in Oil and GM’s
Yeah, I expect that common Noon time dip…then see if things close at highs. THAT would look good on a weekly chart, and then MONDAY could be really interesting (Gap over 50sma across miners and Gold?) We’ll see.
Good call on the Noon time dip.
Thanks., and rejected at the 50sma so far (Gold , GLD & GDX)… It doesnt mean a failure, I just expected the tag of the 50sma to cause a pushback
Alex….. you do an excellent job man! THANKS.
One question: How do you see the gold and oil market going this morning? Did you expect this up and then down again?
Is this a good development? Like to see your short comments!
Have a very good weekend.
Nothing has changed …its just volatility and it is shaking people out In my opinion
Alex….. you do an excellent job man! THANKS.
One question: How do you see the gold and oil market going this morning? Did you expect this up and then down again?
Is this a good development? Like to see your short comments!
Have a very good weekend.
Nothing has changed …its just volatility and it is shaking people out In my opinion
HAve a good weekend too
Alex,
Action in the last hour or two…..Bearish engulfing candle, shake up, gap fill???? Thoughts
Thanks
Its not a bearsish engulfing until it closes there, they are buying it back now. Gap filled and that is good . I knew (And said) That they’d have resistance at the 50sma…GDX , GLD, $GOLD all paused near 50sma. Nothing has changed in my opinion. Day to day noise so far.
Have a nice wkned
Oh …P.S. HARRY- A bearish engulfing is when the candle opens above yesterdays price and closes below it, so that the whole candle is engulfed. Something to look for after the close. SO far, it doesnt meet that criteria (Yay) 🙂
Alex…. what is it now after the close, regarding “A bearish engulfing” Yous said: SO far, it doesnt meet that criteria. AND NOW ???
THANKS FOR TEACHING US
No bearish engulfing
Alex,
Action in the last hour or two…..Bearish engulfing candle, shake up, gap fill???? Thoughts
Thanks
Its not a bearsish engulfing until it closes there, they are buying it back now. Gap filled and that is good . I knew (And said) That they’d have resistance at the 50sma…GDX , GLD, $GOLD all paused near 50sma. Nothing has changed in my opinion. Day to day noise so far.
Have a nice wkned
Oh …P.S. HARRY- A bearish engulfing is when the candle opens above yesterdays price and closes below it, so that the whole candle is engulfed. Something to look for after the close. SO far, it doesnt meet that criteria (Yay) 🙂
Alex…. what is it now after the close, regarding “A bearish engulfing” Yous said: SO far, it doesnt meet that criteria. AND NOW ???
THANKS FOR TEACHING US
No bearish engulfing
TGIF really actually went well within hopes and expectations. Wondering where are we in the HC timing band?
Thanks again mr. alex. Looking forward to next week…
I’ll have a weekned report. Things look good to me 🙂
TGIF really actually went well within hopes and expectations. Wondering where are we in the HC timing band?
Thanks again mr. alex. Looking forward to next week…
I’ll have a weekned report. Things look good to me 🙂
Alex, would this week chart cast into history with an euphoric bull trap?
Last week’s mm betted huge on option expiry.
This week Swiss referenrendum; common Swiss against the cohort of SNB, ECB, FED and IMF. No chance for this David to stake case against Goliath.
A non-event at most but if David brings in the turnout, monetary history will surely return Swiss franc to its glorious past, when it wasn the strongest of currencies but would the common Swiss wants that?
This weekend will tell but JMHO no surprise is expected as options players showed their volume last Friday with strong closing in Spx DJ and USDX………..or could that be an euphoric bull trap?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_112114.html
The gold set up and the dow/spx coming take down