Tuesday March 19th – Countdown To The Fed
As the clock ticks down on Wednesdays Fed Rate Hike Decision, let’s discuss a few things to keep in mind.
I’ve decided to make Tuesdays report long and it will include a lot of stock picks at the end. Wednesdays report will probably just cover a few important areas prior to the FED MTG. The ‘Ideas’ or stock picks in this report and last weeks reports, etc will all still remain valid, as long as they have held up.
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6 a.m. Eastern time EDIT: The VIX finally jumped in a big way overnight, but the General Markets Futures are green, not dropping. Odd.
SPX – We have the SPX trying to break out, but each day so far it pops and drops into the close. With the FOMC Meeting Wednesday, it might be waiting for that decision- so let’s keep that in mind going forward. We could see a larger Pop or Drop Wednesday into Thursday.
TRAN – Again, the TRAN is nearing the 200 sma, but it has been lagging. The FOMC Meeting may PUSH it over , or Push it back. I also wanted to point out what a ‘false break out’ does. It sucks in the bulls for the slaughter, another reason that Stops are important. I see a weak MACD here so far.
TNA – I see another weak MACD so far, and price struggling, so I do think that these markets may react to the FED Decision on Wednesday…
So I do think that these markets may react to the FED Decision on Wednesday. The buy was the reversal over a week ago, and they are set up for long positions until they fail (Stops are important).
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WTIC – Nothing has changed with Oil, and…
XLE – The Energy sector is following through too. Some Energy stocks are Really looking good…
AXAS- Check your Energy watch list & charts, some are really looking promising. AXAS was a buy at the 50sma and it still can be purchased here. It popped 10% Monday.
WTI – This was mentioned as a buy at the 50sma, and it has done very well ( I do not own it). Some others Energy Stocks are on or pushing against the 50sma…
BAS – A great set up and it was up 7%. Are you in Energy? See OAS, CPST, AXAS & AREX (buy now), HOS, HCLP, PDS, DNR (up 10%, but still a buy), HLX and many more for ideas of ENERGY STOCKS near the 50sma & set up bullishly.
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GOLD – How MIXED is this? I see good & bad, but I am expecting a drop into an ICL over time, and The FED is probably the perfect catalyst to start the move. Watch Gold late Wednesday, early Thursday.
1. Gold has been trapped under the red 50sma.
2. It remains above the blue 10 sma.
3. It broke above the blue short term downtrend line & is holding it too.
4. Time is running out if an ICL is to come about.
5. FOMC is Wednesday & that usually Moves Gold
GDX – With a day 7 peak, we may have the Head & Shoulders in place that I have been looking for, but it remains above the 50sma. Another bounce before rolling over is not out of the question.
JDST? – If that H&S is in place, then this would be an Inverse H&S. DO you want to go short? Do you want to go short ahead of the Fed, and risk a shake out if GDX does bounce? That is your call, but the set up is in place. Even the MACD is lined up bullishly at this point.
I want to continue to point out that even while much of the trading is really good right now, we do have a possible big move maker in place, and that is the FOMC Mtgs Wednesday. When the Markets sold off at the end of 2018, I felt that the Bull Market had topped, and wanted to watch the rally of the first 2 daily cycles out of the ICL. SINCE THEN, even the FED has changed their stance on interest rates, right? But has that changed the markets? Or did they see symptoms that caused them to back off, and those ‘symptoms’ still remain ready to cause the markets to falter in 2019. THAT is what is on my mind now. All I heard last year was 4 interest rate hikes in 2018, and maybe 3-4 more in 2019. Suddenly the markets crash into the end of 2018, and they are practically neutral in 2019? Time will show us how this will all play out, and I just keep looking for the clues along the way. Currently, things remain set up to trade “long with a stop’.
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And with that, there are MANY trade set ups playing out nicely, especially in Biotech and the MJ Sector, so I will discuss some trade ideas below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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GET YOUR NOTEBOOK OUT, WE HAVE A LOT OF CHARTS TO TRY TO REMEMBER OR ADD TO OUR CURRENT LISTS HERE 🙂
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The MJ ETF was bullish in January and this looked like a 1/2 way point/ Flag. A measured move would take it to around $39 or $40, but I drew a run to former highs. You can see that there was resistance at the $38 area to the left.
The MJ ETF – After reaching $38+ it got choppy and consolidated those gains, but it didn’t sell off bearishly. This is a bullish consolidation and looks like it does want to continue higher again. So the MJ Sector still looks bullish. Let’s examine a few stocks.
HEXO – I posted a couple of chart of HEXO last week to show this potential after their earnings release looked great. I still own this one. Notice that a break above $7 would lead to all time highs…
HEXO – This not only continued higher on excellent volume Monday, but it was up a total of 15% including after hrs movement. That put it over $7 in after hrs. These MJ Stocks can be choppy at times, but they have been really favorable for the BUY & HOLD traders too, with the recent legalization and potential going forward.
TGODF – Up 12% Monday, This has been a buy recommendation here for a long time and suddenly it started breaking higher Monday with volume & pierced the 200 sma. I own it, and I know that others here do too, so my advice is not to sell too early. If this finishes forming a bullish cup, it will eventually even double from here. No, not in 1 week, but over time. This was midday, and volume ended at 3.2 million.
APHA – I bought APHA here Monday, I like this sector right now and this looks ready to break out too. This was at 2 p.m. and it closed with 9 million in volume and priced at $10.24. It is still a buy in my opinion.
APHA – This is also another view that I had midday, but another view that I like is the weekly…
APHA WEEKLY – It looks like a flag or flat topped wedge and should break higher if the sector remains bullish. That is 1 day of volume on the weekly chart, it will add up.
CTST – This was also a bullish break higher Monday with strong volume. It can be bought, but to have a useful top it would have to be either under the 34 or 20 sma ( neither is shown). Volume, the MACD, and the RSI turned up with this pop.
MMNFF – Increasing volume in a base and it also looks like it wants to break above that red 50 sma & downtrend line. Running higher from a base can be rewarding.
CVSI – From last week, I was looking at CVSI and this set up has taken a long time, but it is closing in on the APEX and they almost always break before they get there. It is on my watch list.
EDXC – This has been an absolute beautiful run. This is now parabolic and I have seen SO MANY parabolic runs drop EVEN FASTER THAN THEY CLIMB, so I lock in gains and try to re-enter later. If you still own this, please be aware of that.
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CLF – CLF is a buy , because it is above some pretty solid and a stop can be placed right under your entry. It started to run Monday, but pulled back as the day moved on. It still closed up 3.4%, so Put it on a watch list, or buy with a stop. It is oversold and looks bullish.
EYES – I mentioned EYES last week, since they released earnings Thursday and the Base is set up bullishly. The volume Popped again Monday, I think that this will run higher sooner than later. It closed up almost 4%, above the 50sma.
SURF #1 – A double bottom with MACD Divergence, Surf broke out on Monday and this ‘little POP’ is 10%. This was an IPO at $18, and Look at the upside potential.
SURF #2 – I just wanted to point out that earnings came out Match 7th, and it has actually gone up 6 out of 7 days since then, and has now moved above the 50sma. I like this set up and I might trade it now that it is above the 50sma. I just have TOO MANY CHOICES.
VSTM – I mentioned VSTM last week too, as they released earnings March 12th. It was a base with bullish volume pops. Well, it popped 9 % Monday and closed above the 50sma. Another Biotech with solid potential.
ABEO – I also posted this last week as a potential buy, BUT EARNINGS were to be released Monday. After releasing earnings last night, ABEO closed up another 15 cents in after hrs.
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THE LOW RISK BUY – What do I mean when I always mention trying to find a good ‘low risk’ Buy?
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EXAMPLE #1 CRON – One example is a stock on support. I like seeing a stock break above the 50sma and then drop back down on lighter volume to back test the 50sma. I buy that reversal and the stop can be placed right under it, so you have LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD.
TGODF – We did that here back near Feb 11. This reversal at the 50sma was pointed out as a buy near $2.30. It’s Low risk because if it loses the 50sma, you sell with a small loss. Good reward, because it is bullish & should move higher. Today TGODF closed near $4.
I had discussed BITCOIN as a bullish set up when it was in the low $3000 area, with an initial possible move to $6000. It is still a good set up, so the Blockchain stocks have been acting rather bullishly too. They can be a bit choppy and difficult to trade or buy & hold at times, but I’ll point a few out again.
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HVBTF – This is a Blockchain stock that I recommended and own from an average of about 25 cents. I bought early in January and also at the 50sma back test. I even added a little more with Monday s break out. This may just continue to be a buy & hold for me, as long as it continues to act correctly.
RIOT – Riot broke from the 50sma and the base in January. It then stalled at the 200sma and crawled sideways in a bit of a bull flag. Monday Riot gapped open & broke that 200 sma, and then dropped to close that gap. Riot and MARA, MGTI, HVBTF, GBTC, and other blockchain stocks look like they may be setting up for a run higher.
XNET LAST FRIDAY – I never posted this in the weekend report, but I was going to. I decided that I wanted to wait and see what BITCOIN did over the weekend. This looks like a bullish descending wedge. What happened Monday?
XNET – It popped higher, but the 10 sma held it back. It is above the 50sma and pinched between the 10 & 50, this is still a good one for the watch list. Any of these could break higher & run if the cryptocurrencies do.
TK- This Shipper was a buy at the 50sma a week ago. It is doing fine, moving up a little each day and it actually looks like it could break & run further from here. Monday was a 7% move. Sidenote: I still own DCIX above the 50sma, but as a trader I am getting bored 🙂 Some of the energy stocks are tempting me to sell my DCIX & put the money in an energy stock.
