Friday March 8
We have reached the last trading day of the week again. Let’s see how things have been playing out…
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FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT : I’m short
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SPX From Yesterdays Report – On Wednesday the SPX closed under the 10sma and should continue lower to a dcl .
Another reason that I would expect a drop in the SPX is…
RUT – The Russell 2000 is leading the way down after pushing against resistance too. This also really looks like all one daily cycle.
So Currently: Daily cycles can be around 40 days long, so…
SPX #1 – To be safe, if this was all 1 daily cycle, it would be very late and we’d be close to finding the DCL. I say ‘to be safe’ because we would be aware of timing & would look for a reversal to close shorts, However…
Note: I have been saying that day 30 may be the dcl, using the DAX & NIKKI – They had deep dips at that time.
SPX #2 – If day 30 was the dcl ( Again I showed the DAX & NIKKI as a sharper drop at that time), this would be only midway through the daily cycle and the drop could last. So basically, I am short watching for a swing low (dcl), but using this countt we could drop for many more days. Stay Frosty.
NASDAQ as of yesterdays report – The NASDAQ wasn’t dropping yet, so I mentioned TZA & SQQQ to go short. I bought SQQQ yesterday along with my SOXS, and the NASDAQ finally started to drop. I would expect the 50sma to get tagged.
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WTIC – I mentioned that even though this looks like a form of a bull flag, I wasn’t thinking that OIL is Bullish. Why? The Oil / Energy stocks are not bullish , and I pointed out DRIP, ERY, etc ( to go short ) as an idea. OILD is short Oil. I did not short Oil. …
XOP – And the XOP dropped further & broke the 50 sma, even though Oil held up.
OIH – The OIH is breaking down too, so we see that these sectors do not believe Oils bullish looking flag. These look weak, I discussed a possible double bottom yesterday.
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The USD = WOW
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UUP – The USD, shown here using the UUP, blasted higher yesterday. That was a big move and it closed at the highs, but Gold, Silver, & the Miners did not drop as much as the USD surged. COPPER didn’t drop either, so the Metals ignored this big move by the USD. The USD is strong with this burst, we’ll discuss it further in the weekend report.
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COPPER – I just wanted to show COPPER, because we have discussed the Bullish side of the Industrial Metals set up too, along with Copper stocks like FCX, TGB, WRN, HBM, etc. COPPER DID NOT CRASH with the USD SURGE. In fact, this is still a bullish chart for Copper.
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GOLD – Gold dropped for 2 weeks and has since gone sideways this week. It did NOT drop as the USD blasted higher. This CAN be a bear flag & drop further, but since a flat base is how the prior dcl formed, this could be a dcl. GOLD didnt drop with that $USD blast higher, so for now sellers may be drying up and we are oversold on day 29. I’d also look for a possible swing low soon.
GOLD BASE – As I write the report Thursday night, this is that base that formed this week (on the hrly chart) and it looks like it wants to break higher now. I would not be surprised to see Gold higher in the morning.
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SILVER – Silver DID drop a bit further yesterday, so it has a new low as of Thursday. It also has a slightly different cycle count than Gold, but it doesn’t change anything. This CAN drop even lower, but we are hitting oversold, it is getting late in a daily cycle, and Gold wants to bounce.
GDX – Another slightly different count, a day 28 low so far. GDX has stopped selling so we have a low 3 days ago, it lost and regained the 50sma, and looks ready to go higher too. Did GDXJ act this strongly?
GDXJ – GDXJ has a slightly different count, because its low was Thursday. It lost the 50 sma and has not regained it yet, but it will on the next bounce.
So the above charts are why I often say that I only use the ‘Cycle count’ as a guide. It definitely helps me to see where we are ‘time-wise’, and when you get to day 30 or so, you start looking for a swing low to possibly form ( DCL). Currently with GOLD, SILVER, GDX, & GDXJ, even though the cycle counts are slightly different, all 4 are close enough to be in the timing for us to be ready for the lows to possibly form soon. A confirmed dcl is a swing low that breaks & closes above the 10sma. At this point, I have to believe that we will get a bounce for a week or 2 in Gold and then that daily cycle forms as left translated and drops even further. Some have asked, “Can I buy this sing low?” Yes, but use a stop under the swing low and we’ll see if it tops on day 5? Day 8? Day 11? as left translated – Or does the bull return sooner than expected?
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I will discuss these things further in the Weekend report, but as a reminder: I have mentioned that I think some Miners will not break down on the pull back. I said that I bought AG as it broke out and it never broke back down, it looks like a simple ‘back test’ so far. I think that some Miners will out perform others, like KL & AU did on the last run.
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We have our weekend report to discuss the Big Picture. I will discuss a few trades below, some prior trades that are still progressing despite the sell down, and another new idea or 2 also . This is Friday, the last trading day of the week. Enjoy your Friday trading & your weekend!
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~ALEX
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LJPC – Recently I said that I bought this ‘Earnings’ pop as it began to burst higher. I then mentioned that this might form a bull flag, similar to PLG, and if so , it may be an opportunity to ‘add’. I drew this to visually help…
LJPC – So far that is exactly what we have here, a possible Bull Flag on support with ‘earnings’ behind us. It is riding the 50sma on lighter volume. I’m watching for a possible Pop higher.
OPHT – OPHT was a buy, and even though some Biotechs are struggling…
OPHT – OPHT is trying to hold above the 10sma.
XENE – FEB 26, XENE was a buy as it tagged the 50sma.
XENE 2:41 P.M. – Lately it has been pushing against the 200sma. After I captured this chart yesterday, it Did break out , but then closed back down under the 200sma near $9.30. The volume is growing and this may break out soon. I think it is a buy here again (add to current position). I do think that it will break out soon, it obviously ignored recent Market selling.
A new idea that I have been watching, knowing that ‘Earnings’ were going to be released:
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IDRA PRICE TARGET – This came out YESTERDAY , and notice that they lowered their ‘Price Target’ to $7 from $16 after IDRA released earnings. That sounds kind of bad,right? They lowered the Target to $7. However…
IDRA – Idra is only $2.79, so I’ll take a $7 target 🙂 Idra put in a reversal after earnings released on Wednesday Night. This is a nice flat 3 month base and I think it is about to break out & run higher.
1. Buy that break out or
2. Start a small start position here with a tight stop.
3. The lows should be in place with earnings behind us. I Bought a small starter for now, but that is a bit risky until it breaks out. I do see this as Low risk/ higher reward though. You may want to put this on your watch list. It could break out as soon as Friday.
YRIV – I liked this tight base after the big drop with the MACD rising. I mentioned that I bought YRIV between 40 – 50 cents and it POPPED up to $1.17 , so I sold a partial. I then tried adding as it pulled back 50% of that move, but it dropped further from that entry to the 10sma. Do I still like this? Let’s zoom in.
YRIV– It dropped right to the 13 sma and seems to be holding there so far, filling that gap to $1. I think that it still looks interesting and has potential, but it is high risk. The problem? Will it Pop & Run now, or base out & run later? Honestly, this could base out for weeks, we’ve all seen that, but I do like the potential if it doesn’t break down. Maybe it can be puton a watch list if it looks like something that may interest you.
CLD – I am still watching CLD along the 50sma too. This didn’t crask the 50sma when the USD surged. It is a bit of a Coal play.
