Tuesday August 27th – Choppy Markets

 

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With the NASDAQ I am using 2 red arrows to show that after the first big down day, we did get 3 green days (attempted bounce along the 10sma) before that real sell off began. As of Monday, we saw the Nasdaq open and sell off again to that 10sma. It is pushing on the 50sma and 10sma, so you would want to see some upside today to avoid what would look like the start of a possible sell off.

 

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CHOPPY INTRADAY SOXX – This is what the markets looked like all day. They initially sold off and then bounced again and again, but could not really gain traction. This kind of a drop and chop makes for  boring day, and…

 

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NOTICE THAT THE SOXX still hasn’t recovered the 50sma and it also lost the 10sma. You may recall that the Soxx was the first to break down and it was what alerted me to failed daily cycles, so we’ll see if this can recover that 50 sma soon, or is this a warning?  We are on day  15 with a day 13 peak so far. I am hearing that the possible market mover this week will be NVDA Earnings after the bell Wednesday.

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WTIC – Oil. What can I say about Oil?  It has surged out of the lows a few times and then sold right back off to the lows shortly after. We have MACD divergence and a 3 day surge so far, and…

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We’ll keep in mind that Oil bounced right where it needed to, as seen on my weekend chart. I said that we would see if it can get through overhead resistance around $80.

THE XOP did not surge the way Oil did on Monday, it followed the markets and sold off after gapping up into resistance. The MACD does look good though, so the oil stocks still may be able to move higher.

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GOLD was on day 22 and it has a day 18 peak. I was hoping for a nice strong rally into maybe day 28 or so, before a dip into a dcl would develop, but yesterday was more of a weaker push higher.

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SILVER is earlier in its daily cycle, since it bottomed later than Gold.  It actually did put in a higher high yesterday, so Silver is on day 12 with a new peak, but I’d really like to see Silver rally up to the $32 area and not just chop around.  It did get back above the 50sma too, and that is encouraging.

 

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Small sidenote: I did want to point out that The SILVER spot price is one day later and it is showing us that Silver is on day 13 with a day 13 peak.

 

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GDX is more closely aligned with Silver than Gold. It bottomed during that market sell off and is now on day 15.

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I just wanted to point out the price action in AG. This is often a bullish move when price crawls along under the 50sma, especially if the MACD is wide open like that. It is usually building energy to breakout above it.

 

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We really had a choppy day on Monday, with the exception of Oil. It’s hard to know if the General Markets are showing weakness or just chopping around waiting for a catalyst like NVDA earnings, to give it a push in one direction or the other. Day traders can trade it, others may be right at their stops, so we’ll just have to wait and see how things play out as we get later into our daily cycles. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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Just a couple of short-term thoughts with Bitcoin:

BITCOIN often dances around that blue line, which was the 20 ema. So it may drop there next.  Let’s zoom in…

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BITCOIN is dropping this morning and the 20 ema is below it. I had a measured move target that was up near $68,000, but we are also starting to run out of time before we become due for a dip into the next low. Since I use ROUGHLY 30 & 60 day counts for the lows, we can just count 30 days forward from that last low (which was really day 31, but it also looks like a capitulation low and I have wondered if it could just reset the count to an ICL).   So whether that was day 31 or we should view it as a new ICL, we’d be due for a dip soon.  Let’s count it out…

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Whether that was day 31 or we should view it as a new ICL, we’d be due for a dip soon.  Let’s count it out.

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Again, you can see that BITCOIN was on day 31 at that low, but it was such a strong capitulatory – type sell off, that it may end up being ‘The Low’ or a new ICL.

Time will tell, but whether we count from day 1 or 31 at that recent low, we are due for a dip into a low very soon. If I just continue the current count, Bitcoin is on day 53 today. How might we get the measured move and a dip?

 

BITCOIN could do this small rally and then a dip, but to be honest, it is often best to just keep in mind that this cycle is getting late and that it could dip soon.

 When Bitcoin sells off, it often goes from looking great to a death dive  🙂  That dip could be mild or sharp again, so I’m not really personally buying and holding crypto stocks yet, even though a few are really starting to shape up nicely.   THAT is also why I am wondering if we just saw a final capitulation low.  WULF, BTBT, and a few others are bullishly set up, post earnings.