Wednesday June 21

So far, The SPX has put in a swing high every 4 days or so,  🙂   and here we see another one.  Since we  are getting late in the intermediate cycle, and since we are on day 22 of the daily cycle, I am watching each swing high as a possible top.  A break of the lower  trendline could escalate the selling, so my stop would be below that.

The NASDAQ…

This is starting to look like distribution selling, so I would be alert to the NASDAQs action here.  Did you notice that the SPX hit all time highs Monday,  but the NASDAQ is floundering a bit?  We are over due for an ICL.

THE USD – Day 4

WTIC – As I have been saying,  I am waiting for a swing low. I have Not been trying to jump into Oil only to get stopped out again and again.  On Tuesday Oil broke to new lows, so this tells us that the ICL was NOT in place in May.  Why am I being so patient?

WTIC –  Oil is due for a Yearly Cycle Low type of an ICL and Oil has been bouncing around a longer term support area.  If this support breaks down, selling can escalate rapidly, so I am NOT jumping the gun or overly eager to try to catch a low here.  A swing low will form and offer a safe entry.

GOLD – Day 30 on Wednesday. Gold sits on the 200sma, will it put in a swing low here? The timing is right.

GOLD –  In early June, Gold started to sell off into its DCL ( possibly ICL) and is sitting on the 200sma.  We are due for a dcl timing-wise.  One more time for the sake of clarity…

–  GOLD DID NOT HAVE THE HALLMARK INDICATIONS THAT WE LOOK FOR WHEN SELLING OFF INTO AN ICL IN MAY, SO I COULD NOT LABLE THAT DROP AN ICL.   IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO TELL IF GOLD HAS PUT IN A STEALTH ICL IN MAY ALONG WITH SILVER & MINERS,  OR DO WE JUST HAVE AN ICL STILL FORTHCOMING IN BOTH?  Notice that Gold has made higher lows, higher highs, no failed daily cycles, All Right Translated, etc. etc, etc.  We have to play it safe and allow this to play out to be safe.  As pointed out in the report yesterday,  Silver looked like an ICL occurred, but SILVER STOCKS like CDE, AG, SSRI, PAAS, ETC do not.  We have not been left behind, we have not missed a major rally.    SO I wait patiently for the market to explain itself.   🙂

At times, I watch the YEN for clues, as mentioned in the past

XJY –  The YEN did sell off  sharply in May and resembles Silver & the Miners.  After bottoming in May and bouncing, that selling continued after a false Pop ( like the Miners had)  with the Fed Hike last week.  This also seems to indicate that Precious Metals may have put in an ICL in May, but a sell off of equal force could also occur if it didn’t.

TLT – You can see that the TLT broke above the April highs and  it continues to run higher.  No clues on Golds circumstances here.   As for the TLT trade? Maybe a tag of the upper trend line, similar to the strong March – April run?

GOLD 6 YEAR TRENDLINE –  This is really what we are watching.  It is a pretty big deal for investors

SILVER – Silver is now almost at the May lows.  Obviously,  if Silver breaks the May lows,  May was not an ICL for Silver.

IMPORTANT NOTE:

I am thinking that if we get a swing low soon, it is almost worth taking a trade or two like I did with GORO and GSV recently. Why?  Just in case this is the DCL after a May ICL, and this would be the start of a 2nd daily cycle.  As pointed out,  we didn’t miss a huge rally in CDE, AG, SSRI, PAAS, and other Miners out of the May lows, since they are back at thier lows, but some miners are looking rather healthy.   Also , the rally out of May was R.T. at this point.  THAT should not happen in a 4th daily cycle that is supposed to be weak. So we definitely still are getting mixed signals. I’m looking to see if things break down soon, or do we get a proper swing low?  It might be a good time to buy at a swing low, with a tight stop.  I will post opportunities at that time, or maybe even in tomorrows mornings report.

4 GDX charts

GDX #1–  In April & May, GDX did have a failed daily cycle with a lower low and a lower high, so it could qualify as an ICL.  This could be a higher low if we get a swing low in this area. Notice that the daily cycle peaked recently, causing this to appear R.T.  unless it drops for many more days.

GDX #2 –  If May was NOT an ICL, we could picture even another daily cycle and this triangle continues to form.

NOTE: TRIANGLES mess up cycle counts,  and I have experienced it and pointed it out in the past.  They look weak due to a lower high inside of the triangle, but a break out higher is Bullish. I am wondering if we are seeing that here, with this triangle formation.

GDX #3 – If MAY was an ICL, we could see a dcl soon,  and start a 2nd daily cycle that breaks out.   When the time is right,  we will jump into those trade set ups.

Yesterday I showed that CDE, SSRI, PAAS, etc are at lows, along with many other miners, so we haven’t missed a strong run. I also noted that this looks like a possible Triangle formation and could become very bullish on a break out.

GDX #4 – A sell off into a future ICL within this daily cycle could also come from a sharp drop this week. Notice how the stochastics stretched at prior lows. This means that we would have time to sell off.

 Nothing has changed,  are expectations are laid out before us and the markets will eventually show us what is going on.  The waiting is the hardest part!!

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~ALEX

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WKHS – My original target for those holding.  it COULD break out, but I think that it will stall here first.

GOLD IN A LARGER CONSOLIDATION –   I was toying with the idea that GOLD could act deflationary and bounce around instead of racing up to the $1500 area right away, but this is not my primary thinking.

This is my primary Big Picture View for GOLD –   After breaking through that down trend line, we could back test and eventually form a cup like consolidation that would soon break higher.   I DO think that we will need to see Inflation pick up for this to happen.  Time will tell.

Or a 5 wave move brings GOLD back up to the highs.

ON MAY 5th –  I mentioned that in the markets I watch various stocks in sectors that are impressive.  I have mentioned  FNSR, CY, MU, NVDA, etc, etc, and AMD.   Notice that strong run that AMD started to put together, but earnings dropped it to the 200sma.   Would that slam down exhaust selling and act as support?

AMD – The selling stopped in that $10 area and it is recovering. If we do get that blow off top in the NASDAQ,  this is one that I think could do well over that time.  It also could be bought on a break out of this downtrend line  With a stop, in case the markets do sell off into an ICL.