May 11 – Trading

NASDAQ –  The NASDAQ continues to climb that wall of worry. If you were long, a trailing stop may work out well, this is now another right translated daily cycle in a Bull Market.  As shown in recent reports, Some stocks are doing well with earnings, and others are getting crushed. Add NVDA & TSEM  to the ‘doing well’ group. Yelp & SNAP to the getting slapped group.

This is a reminder –  This was my My February thought showing a possible parabolic blow off top . The pattern is similar with a sharp sell off and then a ramp higher.

The SPX is not as strong as the Naz, but the set up still looks bullish.

XLF – I was concerned about financials, and they still haven’t recovered.  They could be shaping up though.

The vix was at record recent lows this week, 24 yr lows I believe. It is concerning for some reasons, but I am not worried at this point and I will explain in the weekend report.

WTIC – Oil has a swing low.  Though they could be starting to ‘bottom’, I’m not overly impressed with many Energy stock set ups at this point, so I wont be recommending any until I am.  AREX has been doing very well, but OAS, WPX, GST, DNR, WTI and more seem to need a bit more time.  Let me just say this…

Some have asked, “Can I buy an Oil stock here? Is it safe?”  My answer,  ” You can buy an Oil stock here at the lows, but you may get stopped out again, and that can be frustrating.  It is a semi low risk area, because the lows are very close by. That provides Minimal loss if you are wrong, but I was expecting maybe one more drop in Oil so this is a tricky area”.   This buying Oil stocks trade is not for everyone, you can decide if it is for you.  Many active traders here do like to trade near what could be a bottoming area to catch the lows. So …

DNR FOR EXAMPLE – Read the chart

NATGAS –  I caught the 1st run up in March and last week I mentioned that I re-entered my NATGAS trade again. I pointed out a likely DCL, but when a triangle forms, the dcl is usually that ‘last low before the break out’.  NATGAS looks like it wants to break out higher.   CAUTION: NATGAS INVENTORY REPORT IS RELEASED ON THURSDAY MORNINGS.

GOLD – No swing low yet, see the chart for our parameters. We are due & Miners seem to be saying that are saying that this area is going to be the low.

SILVER – What a sell off in Silver. This could bounce very nicely to the upside, even if I am expecting a 4th daily cycle. Look at that RSI.

GDX – A confirmed swing low is in place. Day 4.

GDXJ – ditto.  I took a trade at the swing low and I only expect a possible bounce to the 50sma , as mentioned MANY times in the past reports. This is not a trade that I ‘recommend’, since this is a 4th daily cycle and could remain weak, it CAN just go sideways for weeks. There are other good trades out there, possibly NATGAS and I will show a few others in this report.

NAK – I cannot tell you what happened, but that was actually a real dip & recovery in NAK.  We saw this similar sell off and recovery type candle in January and the next couple of days were consolidation. So far the NAK trade has been very rewarding.  Many of you got in near $1.10- $1.20 at the 200sma with me. We are near 100% gains.  NOT an easy ride looking back, but well worth it.

NAK INTRADAY – The drop was a huge sell  ( Maybe an accident?).  Trading was halted and when it was restarted, NAK was bought back up.  I’m holding my position, but it the past I have seen high volume slam downs get tested, 🙁 and that looks like a drop to near $1.60. I am just going to ride NAK going forward as long as things remain bullish on the daily charts.

MACK We have been holding MACK since $3 in this base. It was holding the upper line, and on May 4th I noted that price often does this before a break out.  NOTE : Going into earnings MACK was showing signs of strength.

MACK Broke out after earnings into the close of the day yesterday.  This can just continue to run out of this base.  I love these set ups.

Now Note this:

FUEL – I was holding on, but I did see signs of weakness and other warning signs. I even mentioned in one of my last reports, ” Are insiders selling this and it is showing up in the charts?”   With signs of weakness going into earnings, I should have sold 1/2, but I didn’t.

FUEL – I reported yesterday that FUEL was down at $4.45 in pre-market , which threatens to break that trend line.  I sold 1/2 in Pre-market at $4.40 and the rest I wanted to hold and see what happens.  It sold at the open. This trade ended up going from a ‘good steady gainer’ to quickly ‘going bad’. I’ve been in Fuel for a while, but I added on the way up. It sold as a loss.  THANKFULLY,  I had NAK, UGAZ, MACK, VSTM, etc to soften the blow.   LESSON FOR ME: In the future,  If I think that I see weakness going into earnings,  I should sell 1/2 or even just get out .  I can always get back in later if I like what I see. I was encouraged by their earnings this spring, and hoped for the best.

I have been discussing bullish set ups in the once loved, now hated 3-D Printer sector.  Are they becoming loved again?  YES! I have posted charts of SSYS, DDD, VJET , And XONE  to point this out over the past month.  Let’s review…

SSYS– $23 and I loved this base breaking out,  HUGE potential for my long term investors in my humble opinion.

SSYS –  Now already at $29 & Still moving higher. You may want to buy these when they pull back if you didnt buy them last month.

DDD – Has gone from the $15 area when mentioned to $20.55 yesterday.

VJET – VJET is up over 50% since being pointed out.  Up another 12% Wednesday.

APRIL 27 – I have mentioned that XONE is the one to keep an eye on next.   I love that base.  It was at $10.45 and inside of a nice long base, and breaking upward.  Earnings were to be released on May 10th, but it was also still showing signs of strength going into earnings.

MAY 10th – Now at $11.31 it looks to be breaking out, again, showing signs of strength going into earnings.   But what about earnings after the bell?  This really could run swiftly…

After earnings, XONE  jumped almost another $1 to $12.20.  –  These 3-D printer stocks are starting to be loved again, and they were high flyers yrs ago. These could be longer term ‘Buy & Hold”  if the markets continue to climb.

VSTM – I have been pointing out VSTM and also said that I own it. It has big potential too, though Biotech / Pharma can be risky.

Yesterday it started to attack the highs with volume increasing in the morning, so I added some of my FUEL sales to my VSTM holding and captured this chart. I was going to post it in the comments, but price had been popping and selling off into the close the past 2 days , so I decided to hold off. Some may own it anyways from my prior postings of it.

VSTM – Volume & price just kept swelling yesterday and it was up over 20% by the time I got back in front of the screen.  It closed up 18% and looks ready to break out.  If you own this ,  my initial target was around $3 short term, but again, that LONG BASE gives this plenty of room to just run higher.  I am holding on,  this looks like a valid break out.  CGIX is possibly setting up in a similar manner, but needs more time.

2 clean energy plays that look set to break out from their lows. Both reported their earnings already.

CLNE – This is a clean energy play that we have successfully traded in the past.  It has based and looks bullish.  A low risk buy with earnings out and the lows of the base close by.

PEIX – This is also another clean energy play that we have successfully traded in the past. Earnings came out yesterday, it gapped down and was bought up.  That is close to a bullish engulfing, but it did engulf the last 4 trading days. It could be comfortably bought above the 200sma  ( or here).

So we are seeing some nice action in the markets now.  It is becoming a traders paradise again.   Don’t play with fire, be caution around ‘earnings’, I got burned this week pretty good with Fuel. 🙂  Enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX