Posts

Golden Surprise

I want to open up part of my weekend report discussing GOLD, SILVER, and THE MINERS.  I have been saying that using Cycle Timing ( among other things) , we are due for an UPSIDE SURPRISE.   Let me get right into the discussion that I had with my premium readers this past weekend…

.

USD DAILY  – This was July 15 and if you read the chart,  I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop.  Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.

 

 

USD DAILY JULY 19  – So we got the bounce and the USD was rejected at resistance. A bear wedge was also now being pointed out by me. A drop in the USD is good for GOLD…

 

USD DAILY NOW – Friday showed that day 8 was likely the top, The USD Dropped below the 10sma. I see a swing high and this is overbought. The USD selling off should help Precious Metals…

 

USD WEEKLY – Rejected again and again at the double resistance on a weekly, it looks like the USD is ready to finally drop ( and  GOLD should rally).  What?  The Long awaited ICL in Gold?  I think so.  Let’s discuss Precious Metals now that we’ve seen the US Dollar situation…

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES.  I really have.  Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy.  This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.

You will read many  reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’,  ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.

.

 

COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was  slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – Gold put in a reversal on Friday.   Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping.  That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

 

CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.

1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.

2. If Gold moves higher, we get further confirmation

3. Remember that the USD looks set to drop on a daily & weekly

4. We are LATE in our cycle timing

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – A very Nice Reversal Candle on the weekly chart.  I am using Green Arrows to show that once the lows are in, you get ‘weeks’ of upside as it sling shots out of the lows.  That would make my day thumbs up emoticon

 

SILVER WEEKLY  – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.

 

GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold.  THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.

 

And then you have the Miners,  which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off.   I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.

 

GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?

.

Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the  Miners that may still  be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL.  Then our weekend wrap up is finished.

.

TRX –  When I say  Jim Sinclair, what do you think of?  Yes, Gold.  🙂  I have owned  Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.

 

DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.

 

MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports.    It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%.  The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows,  it is bullish, even  though GOLD is at 1 year lows.

 

EGO WEEKLY  –   I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows,  that is also Bullish action, not bearish.

.

 

I AM BULLISH.   MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY.    Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too.  We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday.  On top  of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.

.

The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks,  I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week!  We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not  GOLDS LOWS are in place.   It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.    party blower smiley

 

~ALEX

 

SIDENOTE:  Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.

 

AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too.  I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see  X, CLF, CLD.

 

CLF  –  CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.

 

And the URANIUMS were pointed out weeks ago as having bullish set ups. This was UUUU breaking out in June…

UUUU – 3 weeks ago,  UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated.  Others did this also.

 

UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.

 

 

Chart Freak Membership

Alex has been successfully writing a daily newsletter service for nearly four years now and is considered one of the best traders of precious metals miners, energy/uranium stocks, and biotechs.   This is your opportunity to join his service as a member and follow along as we enter the next bullish gold Cycle higher.

If you would like to find out more about the service or sign up, please click the buy option for more details.

Don’t Get Left Behind

The Theme picture here speaks a thousand words. At Chartfreak, we've covered plenty of bullish set ups in the General Markets like TWTR, SQ, AMD, CREE, CY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc. over the past few months, but in addition to that, I have recently been very focused on the current set up in the Precious Metals Sector. For the public, I want to share what we have been doing with that here.

.

We have been tracking Gold, Silver, and especially Miners with focus for the past couple of Months. I have been expecting a deep sell off into a Cycle Low that will lead into an excellent buying opportunity. Interestingly, even though I have expected a deep sell off into that ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low), I started recommending buying at least some Miners weeks ago, because something interesting was taking place. Unlike the prior bear market sell offs, where Miners crashed down as Gold sold off, I noticed several Miners appeared to very strong. They seemed to be under accumulation, despite Golds sell off.

.

Take a look at KL for example. New 2018 highs occurred while Gold was selling off over the past few weeks. In fact, it has almost doubled in 2018.

.

Did you notice GORO? I have been pointing this kind strength out for Months now, but many are still afraid of this sector. This sell off in Gold has fooled many into believing that "Gold is dropping and Miners are dangerous." I got emails to that affect, but charts do not lie and my daily reports have been sharing many bullish factors that go unnoticed at times.

     

So I've decided to show portions of my last 2 weekend reports combined together here for the Public to take advantage of.

Read More
Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

 

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)

 

A REMINDER OF JAN 2016 -

  Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Chart Freak - ChartFreak Read More

Are You Shopping For Your Favorite Miners?

Sometimes it is not enough to go shopping when things are on sale, we all like to get the rock bottom prices. In the Precious Metals sector we caught the lows in Mid January and at the end of May, when they experienced a serious sell off.  Looking for certain signs of a bottom, we started to see it as it was approaching. As you probably know, the Precious Metals sector has again been caught up in a deep sell off.  Here at Chartfreak we’ve been expecting this, as seen in my public posts as well as my premium posts.  I had been mentioning as far back as July and August that we should be looking for a deep correction and then a trade-worthy bottom, likely at the end of September or October.  Will this sell off continue, or are we near the bottom? Lets look at some of the charts from my weekend report and see what we’ve been looking at!  We’ll skip right to the Precious Metals section.

.

 GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

.

The COT levels are back where they were in May at that Deep trade-able low (ICL), and GOLD is now late in the ‘daily timing’ for a cycle low, so this starts to look good. 

cot-11-14

 

GOLD – Golds did not have a proper swing low in place as of Friday, but we do see signs of bottoming.  Daily cycles do not extend much further than 25 -30 days, and we see that a low formed on day 25 so far.  That means that Friday was either Day 30 of this sell off daily cycle or day 5 of a new daily cycle and lows could be in place at $1243.20. Follow through higher above 1267.60 places a swing low in place.

gold-10-14

SILVER – Silver has a proper swing low, but it is not really ‘confirmed’ yet. I want to see a break above the 10sma as follow through.

silver-10-14

.

NEAR OR AT THE LOWS? TIME TO DIG DEEPER

.

GDX Looking back to Oct 6th, I started to tell everyone that often GDX bottoms in a way that looks easy to buy in hindsight, but it is NOT.  Look at those May lows. I said that we could see the same type of bottom form around the 200sma, as we saw at the 50sma. It scares away buyers looking for support in that area…

gdx-10-6

And there you go, twins.  Easy to buy, right?  No.  🙂  On this chart I got 1 ‘buy’ signal that triggered Wednesay using an indicator that I developed over time (the lower section).

gdx-10-14

 

GDX OCT 12th – This system that I developed years ago triggered a ‘buy’ on Oct 12th ( see the lower section).  It is at times scary, because it often triggers before a strong move higher.  In the past it has been very accurate. Again, the progress since this Oct 12th chart is seen on the above chart in the lower section.

gdx-trigger

GDX – This points out that Day 27 was either the low and we saw Day 3 on Friday, or if we drop 1 more time, we extend this daily cycle to the limits.  That in mind, I believe that any drop would be a shake out and then rebound.

gdx-10-14-a

Please recall that back on Oct 6th , I said that $22.08 was a measured move that is possible too, but not necessary.  It also leads to a back test of that orange channel, but notice that we did back test that already in the May sell off. So another quick slam down and recovery is still possible, but that tag of that blue channel is usually enough in a bull market sell off. This sell off should be finishing up.

gdx-10-6-2

I used this chart in a report last week to show that the GDX:GOLD ratio was turning up.  I wrote in the middle of this chart that a cross of the 8sma is a buy for some technical traders, but I find it a bit risky and not a low risk buy when used all by itself. We did not have a cross over yet at that point.

gdx-gold

GDX:$GOLD UPDATE : We got that cross over.  If Gold drops or Miners rise faster than Gold, we get the cross over.  Monday we will look to see if this holds or gives way. 

gdx-gold-10-14

.

EDIT:  This is Mondays chart, the cross over the blue line held and it looks like it back tested. This shows us that even though GOLD hadn’t places a proper swing low in place, Miners are leading.

gdx-gold-10-17

WEEKEND REPORT CONCLUSION: We are waiting for a confirmed swing low and a push higher.  Oil and NATGAS remain bullish,  but I sold my energy positions to focus on the Precious metals.  We are deep into the timing for a low in Gold, Silver, and Miners, and I think that this is where some nice gains will be made next.  I expect a run higher very soon, and I will cover set ups and entries in Miners when those lows are confirmed.

.

Are you ready to go shopping in the precious metals sector? Back in May 2016 at the lows, we entered what I considered to be low risk bullish set ups in VGZ, MUX, and TRX and these ran up 100-250% in 2 months! Why not sign up at chartfreak and add this analyses to your own method of trading. If this run is anything like the run we saw out of the January lows or the May lows, 1 trade will more than pay for your monthly or quarterly membership. In Monday evenings report, I discussed a few Miners that had low risk set ups.

.

 

Chart Freak Premium

Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates.  Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.

join-now

~ALEX

 

.

SIDENOTE: BPGDM

 People have asked me, “Does the BPGDM have to drop further like in Aug 2015”? No, not if we are in a re-newed bull market.

In the summer 2015, Miners were TRASHED and the BPGDM was about as low as it gets, then some Miners started to recover before the GDX lows were really in place.  So when we were looking for the LOWS in GDX last year ( they actually came in mid January 2016)  BPGDM was rising, not falling. Some Miners were already being accumulated  BEFORE THE ICL.

.

Look at the MAY 2016 ICL.  If someone says that the BPGDM has to drop lower now, before an ICL can be in place,  then why did it hold up so well at the May ICL?  We are already lower than the May ICL, isnt that enough? We are almost at the January 2015 ICL level  (but we do not have to go there).

.

Currently, the BPGDM has dropped as much as it needs to to remove bullish sentiment. Many people are no longer interested in ‘taking a chance on Miners’.  THAT IS BULLISH.

bpgdm

Gold Core Positions and Miners

 Gold Core Positions and Miners

 

Note: This post is an except from a nightly member only report.

 

SPX - Not much has changed over the past several days, but consolidations often lead to strong moves.

SPX 8-1

Read More

Shaken, Not Stirred

After a solid 5 day rally, gold sold off on Thursday, and the precious metals miners were sold-off indescriminetly.   Both GDX and GDXJ were down almost 6%, leading many to be shaken out of position on the pullback.  For me, these events are expected and become opportunities, so lets examine the charts to see why.

$GOLD - a pullback to the 10 & 20 sma as support is normal.

GOLD 8-13 Read More