Weighing The Evidence

Bull? Bear? Bias?  We caught The Lows in Miners a few weeks ago, and the rally has surely gone beyond my expectations.  I now see many are calling THE END to the 4+ year bear market and calling the start to another phase of the Bull market in Gold.   So was the action of the past couple of weeks a guarantee of the Bear Market lows being in?  It's best to weigh the evidence and try to allow the facts to speak for themselves.  Lets continue to look at all of the markets and weigh the evidence. 


SPX BIG PICTURE - My readers know that I have been calling for the bear market drop in the markets since early last summer. We just landed in a very interesting place this week. Notice the dance around the 200 ma on a wkly basis since the 1980's.

SPX 2-12 wkly

Zooming in...

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Whats A Melt Up?

What is a 'Melt Up'?  Most of us are familiar with a 'melt down' in the market,  so basically it is the opposite.  Either a stock or an entire sector can just sell off or get bought up into extreme levels, and then it still keeps going, not allowing the cautious investor an entry.  It may not be straight up everyday, it may run, pause, run again and again until the move exhausts itself.  This is what we will discuss in the weekend report, because it is possible that we could be seeing a 'Melt Up' in Gold and precious metals. They can last for weeks, with minor pauses.


This is an example of a small melt up. I used this chart to show the danger of trying to guess the top by buying DUST or Shorting Miners last week. You can ignore the writing,  just look at the melt up.


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Safety First

Each trade that you take has some risk to it. Some trades are low risk  set ups with higher probability of success and others are just plain risky, depending on the set up.  We will discuss that a bit later in the report. 


SPX- The Fed didn't change this chart very much.  I still see similarities between the double bottom in Aug & Sept, but it is weak. Notice the candle for Wednesday rallied on the Fed and gave it up.  The buy the dip crowd is weak. We are not oversold yet, but getting there.

SPX 2-10 . Read More