Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Was That A Curve Ball?

Judging by the intensity on that pitchers face?  I'd say he's throwing some heat, maybe a fastball.   When it comes to Metals and Miners , however, I think many  were  fooled the recent action  and in that case  you may hear them say,  "It really  threw me a curve ball! "   Understandably , the past few years in Metals and miners have been ugly for the bulls, but there were definitely a number of factors that helped us here at Chartfreak to navigate the recent lows, and identify that this was NOT a break down.   Its slowly  becoming clearer to all that  Miners were telling the story and Metals were not forming a bear flag as some suspected.  Metals have been  putting in some constructive lows.   The move higher might become rather swift  at this point too , and I'll show you what I mean in this report, but the real question is... Are these rallies going to last?  Or should we be alert to future downside?  We'll address that too.  To the Charts!!

First the general markets. please read this chart .

VIXY

 

Not much has changed in my thinking about the possibilities for the general markets going forward, lets review...

 

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Miners Are Acting Correctly

I posted for  the public blog in Nov & Dec many times that I was expecting a strong move in Metals and Miners. It was Very unpopular and many were ( Understandably) quite nervous about entering and holding any positions, especially over the weekends.  Others doubted the idea all together.  In the premium strategies section of this site, I have been recommending Miners  with proper 'Set ups' that were projecting strong  moves  higher and I was also giving strong reason in both Nov & Dec that  buying  then would pay off going forward.  Bases were being built and could move up at any time.   Still, it wasnt easy back then at the lows.

Some Miners have done very well since then.  People are gaining confidence that maybe the move could be profitable for them too .  Let me show you what we here at chartfreak have been looking at.

 

IAG , CDE , HL, AG  were just a few that were  recommended early on .

IAG ran from $1.40 to $2.50 and  consolidated for a while.  It ended up moving 100% off of the lows already.   Last week it pulled back and reversed at the 10sma.  These leaders are looking  good and acting correctly , which adds confidence to our holding positions.

IAG JAN 12

To further add confidence to the possible moves, lets review another set up recommended here .

 

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Looking for a Miner?

Are you looking for another miner?

MINER

I have been posting some good buy set ups, and they have played out very well. If you missed them or I know that  some have even told me that they took profits recently, only to see them continue higher. What to do?   Look for another decent "set up".  SO I want to share a some  good looking  set ups here with you now.

 

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Week ending Jan 9 Review

I like to look back at the end of each week and just see if the charts are telling us anything new. Are they confirming what we  expected ? Are there new implications?  Is there something there can boosts our confidence moving forward?  This week , I see all of the above . Lets review .

Lets take a look at the $USD for a moment- practically straight up

supoerman

Ooops, wrong image, but they look the same. Here is the correct chart of the $USD

$USD JAN 9

 

Is it really going to pause? Well, lets look at a few other charts ...

 

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JUST CHARTS & THOUGHTS

Weeks ago I mentioned that sometimes when the markets are breaking to new highs on weakness, it  can cause volatility and lack of direction. Do you feel that we are seeing that now?  This chart from DEC 23 showed what I was referring to as we broke to new highs with weakness. I was afraid that we might be heading there again.

SPX dec 23

Its can be hard to  make good Money when the volatility has markets ( say the Dow for example ) moving up & down 100's of points daily.  Down 300 , up 200, down 300, up 320, down 250,  etc etc etc .   Yesterday the Markets re-gained the 50sma and today they are giving it up again.   Volume is  a tad heavyish so far today and I am again watching  the close to see if we get an idea what to expect going forward...

 

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JAN 8 Follow up / Quick Turns

Well I was hoping I could use this picture again ,  what a Fast moving beauty!    : )     Actually , speaking of fast moves ,  this is an update to this mornings post.  As we watch things unfold here , and I mentioned what I was looking for, I hope you are seeing what I am seeing.

 

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OBSERVATIONS

I have been watching the various markets intently , examining internals and how they've reacted under similar circumstances in the past  to try to get an idea of what to expect .  I think that I have done rather well with the general markets and Metals and miners,  but I must say...there are some extremes in some areas that I have just left alone until I get a clearer idea of how things may unfold going forward.   What am I referring to?  Well, specifically the  ENERGY  sector with OIL and NATGAS has been a little tricky, and of course the $USD has been very strong -  now even higher than I anticipated.   lets take a look at those areas.  They that have been difficult to call,  for Sure.

  I know what I "Guess" they could do, but when it comes to putting advice in my premium reports on these sectors,  I have decided to just wait until things clear up , and focus on some other very trade-able areas.

 I expected the $USD to stop in the $92 area.   ( Actually, I had that as a target, but I thought it may not  make it there, I mentioned that it could roll over near 91  because GOLD began completely ignoring the $USD strength. I assumed GOLD was sniffing out Dollar weakening).

I posted this chart Jan 2- $92 target

$USD JAN 2

 

Then on JAN 5 , I noticed this ...

 

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Nothing Has Changed

You could basically read my last few reports and get the same results.  Even though the numbers have changed and the moves are taking place, my outlook hasnt changed.

Here is yesterdays wkly chart of SPX  - we expected a move higher, but a bounce or a buy the dip recovery?

SPX JAN 6 WKLY

I thought that the markets looked a little 'different' this time, so I mentioned that it could 'fail' .  Yesterday we did have a reversal

And CNBC  had a lot of people on saying, "You just have to Buy the Dips. Its been working for years now! "  Is THAT what I mean when I say nothing has changed?...

 

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EXPECT PULLBACKS

Markets dont go straight up or down

  ( yes I've seen the $USD and Oil Lately    )  Well actually,  they haven't been 100% straight up or down either. We expect Pullbacks , consolidations,  dips, etc . Even the straight up dollar move wasn't straight up , as you can see here in my Jan 2 chart, there were dips ...

$USD JAN 2

 

Pullbacks  happen all the time, and the key is to examine them separately and look for opportunity. Lets discuss pullbacks ...

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Many Still Cant See It

Many still cant see it ,  lets zoom in for a minute

BULL

 

If you're worried that the public will see this , dont.  I have posted for 8 weeks my thoughts on a particular sector in extreme detail, and I still cant convince everybody of what I have been seeing, this Picture wont change anything for the public. So Lets discuss Various  Markets ...

 

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